ESPN’s advanced metrics released some predictive statistics for the 2026 football season.
The model, on average, has Illinois winning 7.0 games this year.
The Fighting Illini are projected to have the 28th best offense and 44th best defense in America.
And the 8th best offense and 14th best defense in the Big Ten out of 18 teams.
Overall, Illinois is projected as 9th best team in the Big Ten, and 32nd team nationally to start 2026.
Offense
The offense is expected to perform well under 5th year OC Barry Lunney Jr.
QB Katin Houser is a fifth year transfer from East Carolina and helped led the Pirates to 8 wins and 32 PPG. He threw for 19 touchdowns and added nine rushing scores in a spread offense attack.
The running back room is set with the duo of Ca’Lil Valentine then Aidan Laughery, who’s very speedy and productive when healthy.
The wide receiver may be the team’s biggest strength. Junior Collin Dixon could see a breakout season after a steady first two years. Senior Hudson Clement had a big 2nd half in 2026 and can play slot or Z and showed an ability to beat defenders deep if needed. And Illinois landed two veteran Group of Five players in FIU’s 6’5 WR Alex Perry, who was All-Conference, and FAU’s speedy WR Jayshon Platt, who also returned kickoffs.
Offensive line is talented, but they need to gel. There are four new starters after Illinois lost many players to the National Football League. Colorado State tackle Christian Martin, Wisconsin center Jake Renfro, and Music City Bowl starter and tackle Nathan Knapik are players to watch.
Defense
DC Bobby Hauck has never been a defensive coordinator, but he brought over multiple Montana assistants to help install the 3-3-5 defense in Champaign.
The defense isn’t really run in the Big Ten, and usually, it’s suited for smaller teams. Illinois could be a “bend but don’t break defense” in 2026, but they’ll rely on a talented, NFL prospect secondary and a more aggressive front-six to improve outcomes.
Bottom line, under former Illini DC Aaron Henry who’s now at Notre Dame, Illinois had a bottom-third defense in three straight seasons, and some were critical of a lack of aggression.
At secondary, SS Matthew Bailey, CB Juice Clarke, and DB Xavier Scott are possible NFL players. Scott, before missing most of last year with injury, was First-Team All-Big Ten in 2024 with four interceptions. And Bailey has caught the eye of NFL scouts because of his size, but he needs to be more consistent in pass coverage and wrapping up tackles.
The front six is more unproven. At defensive line, Illinois lost seven out of eight tacklers to graduation or the transfer portal. Eli Coenen went to Michigan State, Angelo McCollum went to Texas A&M, Curt Neal went to Purdue and Tomiwa Durojaiye went to South Carolina.
Illinois replaced them with Penn’s Carter Janki and Jacksonville State’s Darrell Prater. And hope that returners Joe Barna (who had a huge Music City Bowl) and Pat Farrell can create a strong pass rush/run stopping moments.
The linebacker room is interesting. Sophomore — and the top 2025 recruit — Grant Beerman could thrive in this defense because of his athleticism. And seniors Daniel Brown and James Kruetz need to step up.
Special Teams
The place kicker could be Ethan Moczulski, who played at Illinois two years ago and returned to Champaign after a year in Washington. Moczulski has a massive leg, and made a 59-yarder two years ago — and that’s the only field he’s ever made in college.
He’s 1-2 in his career.
He’d replace David Olano, Illinois’ most accurate kicker in school history who left for the Texas A&M Aggies.
Lars Rau could be the punter. He redshirted at Illinois last year, and started his career at Texas State. He averaged 36 yards per punt.
Season
Season opens up on Sep. 3 vs. UAB Blazers. Illinois is a 27.5 point favorite.
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